It has been a busy week at FFLibrarian so I've recruited my friend, Matt Schauf, whom I met several years ago at a Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) meeting, to do a guest post on here on IDPs. Matt writes for DraftSharks.com now and he's basically my favorite IDP writer plus just a smart cookie, so if you're in an IDP league and looking for IDPers that may well outperform their draft position, read up. Much of DraftSharks.com's content is behind a paywall so consider this your lucky break if you're a DSharks fan.
I'll be back tomorrow with some really excellent links for the week - seriously, I'm already pretty excited about some of the links I have lined up for you.
I'll be back tomorrow with some really excellent links for the week - seriously, I'm already pretty excited about some of the links I have lined up for you.
By Matt Schauf
Do you use IDPs in your fantasy football league? I'm
guessing you do because you decided to read past the headline. I'm also willing
to bet that you don't put as much work into preparing for the defensive portion
of your draft as you do the offense.
I can't blame you. Most fantasy players don't. But I do, and
it pays off handsomely come draft time. That's why I decided to stop by my
friend Sara's blog here and pass along some tips to dominate your IDP draft.
First of all, don't be afraid to start the run on defenders.
Texans DE J.J. Watt and Panthers LB Luke Kuechly project well ahead of the
others at their positions. If you're the kind who says "I'm not taking an
IDP before Round 10," you'll miss out on fantasy's defensive versions of
Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson.
Beyond the top guys, though, draft values are abundant. ADP
has become so familiar to fantasy football players that everyone reading this
probably already knows what it means without me spelling it out. You can find
the offensive numbers all over the place and shape your strategy accordingly.
That's tougher to do on defense, however. IDP drafts are
nowhere near frequent enough to build reliable ADP stats, and individual site's
rankings will vary more wildly than they do on offense. I checked out
MyFantasyLeague.com drafts that have started since July 1, though, and found
these 10 defenders who are set to significantly outperform their draft position
and help you win a title.
Defensive Line
Osi Umenyiora, DE,
Falcons
Among the 31 D-linemen who had been picked in at least 5% of
drafts, Umenyiora ranked a lowly 24th. I get it. The guy will turn 32 in
November, played a diminished role for the Giants last year and missed 7 games
the year before.
But Umenyiora delivered 9 sacks in the 9 regular-season
contests he did play in 2011. He contributed 6 more last season as the New
York's No. 3 DE, just a half-sack less than Jason Pierre-Paul's team-leading
total.
Umenyiora will play right DE full time in Atlanta and should
at least approach 10 sacks. He has also proved an adept collector of tackles
and forced fumbles, knocking 31 loose over the past 8 seasons (3.9 a year).
Don't be surprised if Umenyiora winds up among the top 12 fantasy D-linemen --
barring injury.
Rob Ninkovich, DE,
Patriots
This one, quite honestly, is tough to get. Ninkovich finished
each of the past 2 seasons among the top 10 IDP linemen. His current MFL ADP
sits somewhere outside the position's top 31. Unless I overlooked the report of
him losing a leg, this simply doesn't make sense.
Ninkovich faces no real challenge to his starting left DE
job. If anything, his work might get easier with second-year DE Chandler Jones
developing and the team adding veteran DT Tommy Kelly. Ninkovich has proved a
multi-category producer in his 2 seasons as a full-time starter and improved
his sack total each of the past 2 years. He can start for your IDP squad.
LINEBACKERS --
48 listed
D'Qwell Jackson, ILB,
Browns
Jackson ranked outside the top 20 fantasy linebackers in
many formats last year, but that'll change in 2013.
You might read about how he struggled against the run the
last time Cleveland lined up in a 3-4 front. That's true. Pro Football Focus
graded him third-worst among 46 qualifying inside linebackers in run defense
back in 2008. But it also doesn't matter. Know how I know? Jackson also led the
league in tackles that year.
He could challenge to do so again in his first year under
new coordinator Ray Horton -- especially with Craig Robertson and a bunch of
other guys you've never heard of manning the other ILB spot. Look for Jackson
to assume some of the blitzing duties that helped make Daryl Washington the top
fantasy linebacker last year. The whole package should easily outperform
Jackson's current LB14 draft position at MFL.
Bruce Carter, OLB,
Cowboys
Everyone in Dallas seems to expect this guy to break out
under new coordinator Monte Kiffin. That's not surprising, considering Carter
will play the weak-side role that helped make Derrick Brooks a star in Tampa
Bay and has worked smaller wonders for players from Lance Briggs in Chicago to
Cato June in Indianapolis.
Carter stands 6-foot-3, 246 pounds and has reportedly been
timed in the 4.4s in the 40-yard dash. He's a big, fast man who returned each
of his three college interceptions for at least 41 yards. This is a playmaker
whose new scheme is setting him up to make plays. MFL has him going a
respectable 20th among linebackers so far. Fantasy Pros' aggregate
"expert" rankings says the fantasy community likes him just 25th at
the position. Neither set goes nearly high enough.
If you get nothing else from this list, make sure to put
Bruce Carter in your IDP lineup this year. (Draft Sharks Insiders can check out
our LB
rankings to see just how high I have him.)
London Fletcher, ILB,
Washington
Fletcher's bound to break down at some point ... right?
He's heading into his age-38 season. Only two linebackers
have ever started 16 games in an NFL season at 38 or older: Sam Mills for
Carolina in 1997 and Clay Matthews for Atlanta in 1995. No player has reached
100 total tackles at that age. Only Mills and Fletcher have done so at 37.
Throw in the multiple injuries that nearly cost Fletcher a game or more last
season, and he could nearing the cliff.
But you know what? He ranked among the top 5 fantasy
linebackers last season. And the year before. And in 2010. And he finished 2009
among the top 10. Fletcher's age makes me more wary of him than a younger guy
with the same profile, but it doesn't make me forget about him.
The veteran has been the 29th linebacker off the board at
MFL. That ain't right.
Erin Henderson, MLB,
Vikings
According to the My Fantasy League ADP, Henderson isn't even
consistently getting drafted. PunchDrunkWonderland.com is running a series of
IDP-only drafts -- I took
part in No. 13 -- and said that Henderson went undrafted in seven of the
first 14 exercises.
Apparently most people thought that Desmond Bishop would
automatically take over in the middle after signing. They were wrong. Henderson
has stayed there and continued to impress coaches. The only thing standing
between him and consistent starting fantasy value is a three-down role.
Henderson struggled in coverage the past two years and lost
those duties to MLB Jasper Brinkley last season. But head coach Leslie Frazier
has continued to tout Henderson's upside and would like to see him earn
every-down work. I'm more than willing to grab Henderson as a third or fourth
fantasy linebacker and see what happens.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
-- 36
William Moore, SS,
Falcons
Moore has been going 18th among defensive backs in MFL
drafts since July 1. That's actually down from 15th for the whole year. Why?
I can only guess that people are ignoring his per-game
production last season, which ranked second among all defensive backs in many
IDP setups. Moore missed the final 4 weeks with a hamstring injury, which
dragged down his total fantasy score, and the injury issue has recurred
throughout his young career. But this is the easiest position in fantasy
football at which to find a replacement.
I had Moore as a top breakout candidate last season --
projected third among DBs -- and he delivered. I see no reason to back off him
this year.
Reshad Jones, SS,
Dolphins
If you watched Sunday night's Hall of Fame game, you
probably noticed Miami's issues with tackling (among many other football
fundamentals). The Dolphins played without starting middle linebacker Dannell
Ellerbe but had their other two LB starters. Continued issues on that front
would only mean more opportunities for Jones.
Of course, he doesn't need crappy linebacker play to deliver
IDP results in 2013. Jones finished 2012 -- his first full starting season --
with 95 total tackles, 4 interceptions and a No. 8 ranking among fantasy DBs.
Pro Football Focus graded him the third-best overall safety in the league. For
some reason, he's going 16th among defensive backs on MFL.
T.J. Ward, SS, Browns
Ward's low rating among drafters is easier to understand. He
finished last season outside the position's top 50 and missed half the season
in 2011. But don't forget about a stellar rookie campaign that ranked
Ward among fantasy's top 10 DBs.
Ward among fantasy's top 10 DBs.
He finished second among all NFL defensive backs in both
total tackles (123) and solos (95) that year and could generate big numbers
again in that area. New coordinator Ray Horton played Adrian Wilson in the box
a lot with the Cardinals, and Ward has already professed excitement for the
"downhill" approach. He entered the league out of Oregon with a
well-earned reputation for big hits.
Behind a questionable group of linebackers, Ward could
deliver consistent scoring for your fantasy squad.
Matt Elam, SS, Ravens
You want a safety made to play in the box? Elam stepped into
the lineup as a sophomore at Florida on one of the nation's best defenses and
led the team in tackles for loss. Last year he tied DT Shariff Floyd for the
lead in that category. (Floyd, by the way, just became a Viking in the first
round of April's draft.)
Elam also finished second on the team in total tackles each
year and tallied five career sacks and six interceptions. So he's a stout
tackler who also presents big-play upside. No wonder head coach John Harbaugh
and GM Ozzie Newsome were excited to get Elam at the end of Round 1.
Fantasy drafters can get him pretty much whenever they want
so far. Elam doesn't show up among the 36 DBs in MFL's average draft position
list.
Matt Schauf writes
about IDPs and everything else fantasy football for DraftSharks.com. Online
since 1999, Draft Sharks won the 2010 and 2012 FSTA awards for most accurate fantasy football projections.
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