Streaming Defenses: Week 11

Greetings, football fans. I read tonight that my old home of Boulder, Colorado, saw a 10 degree temperature drop over the course of one short minute today. Whoa. Kind of jealous I'm not there to experience that awesome weather. And of course just be in Colorado when my Broncos are on such a roll...but here's hoping those of you in the path of the cold front are staying warm for tonight's MNF game. Let's get right to guest writer Bob's thoughts on streaming defenses for Week 11.

Hello again fellow streamers, how did you do this week? Did any of you pick the Packers? I won two of my games on the Packers defense alone. And the ‘Boys didn’t hurt me at all. The Saints were a flyer and didn’t do too bad. And the Steelers, in spite of a smack down, still put up some points. So here are the overall results of our projections for Week 10.

Team	Projected	Actual
Cowboys	14	14
Steelers	12	9
Packers	12	21
Saints	10	8
Average	12	13

The average of all defenses came in at 11.4 points. The average of the six teams owned by over 70% was 12.8, and if you take out the Cardinals that had 31 points as an outlier, they only averaged 10.3. So the stream worked really well with the Packers and Cowboys, and was just under the top 6 team average by only a point or two with the Steelers and Saints. So a good week for the projections, which were exceeded by an average of 1 point. Once again, pointing out streaming can be effective. So what has week 10 taught us about some of the defenses? First, watch out for the Packers. They have unleashed the beast. Clay Matthews went wild in his new role of ‘roaming assassin’. He had his best stats of the year with 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 tackles for a loss, and a sack. It looks like this will continue and put additional consideration into starting the Packers in the future. In the playoff weeks, (14-16) they meet the Falcons, Bills, and Buccaneers, probably the best three matchups for the playoffs. 

Second, Miami did as expected and didn’t put up ridiculous numbers this week, but still managed 8 points. They are starting to look like an every week start except when they meet the Broncos and Patriots. Their playoff opponents are the Ravens, Patriots, and Vikings. 

Finally, ARI is for real on both sides of the ball, but they have a real gauntlet of opponents to face yet, including SEA twice and the 49ers for a return engagement, without Palmer. But they also have the Rams and Falcons coming. Their playoff opponents are the Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks, not too bad…

So this week is going to be tough, with 2 of our top 5 targets on a bye, the Jaguars and Jets. By the way, the Vikings have moved past the Raiders as the 5^th most generous opponent for Defs. Here’s my analysis of the top owned Defs along with a few streams to make up for the poor matchups this week.

Player	Pts Yr	Avg yr	Own %	Opp	Comments
Seahawks	84	9.3	98%	@KC	Start but Temper Expectations
Cardinals	114	12.7	88%	DET	3rd Best Matchup, only because DET doesn’t give up points easily.
Eagles	109	13.6	84%	@GB	Bad Matchup
Broncos	89	9.9	82%	@STL	1st Best Matchup
Lions	117	13	79%	@ARI	Bad Matchup
Chiefs	93	10.3	79%	SEA	Bad Matchup
49ers	95	10.6	77%	@NYG	2nd Best Matchup
Bills	113	12.6	73%	@MIA	Start but Temper Expectations
Patriots	113	12.6	72%	@IND	Bad Matchup
Texans	106	11.8	71%	@CLE	Start but Temper Expectations
Dolphins	124	13.8	69%	BUF	Start, 1st best stream, starting to look like an every week start…
Bengals	69	7.7	69%	@NO	Bad Matchup
Redskins	67	7.4	4%	TB	Start, 2nd best stream, yep at home and showing potential against the 3rd most generous offense.
Steelers	95	9.5	55%	@TEN	Start, 3rd best stream, will be pissed…
Packers	99	11	32%	PHI	Start, 4th best matchup with Matthews playing roaming assassin, move up to 2nd if PHI struggles tonight
Chargers	67	7.4	13%	OAK	The Chargers defense has been terrible as of late, I wouldn't start them even against OAK.

As I said, the Dolphins are getting tough to sit, so start them against a Bills offense on the road that may sputter. They are only 69% owned so may still be available in some leagues. The Redskins oppose one of our target defenses in TB, although the Bucs aren’t being nearly as generous as in past weeks, but still gave up 13 points to the pitiful Falcons. The Steelers will be pissed, and will take it out on the Titans, even on the road. And then there are the Packers. If PHI struggles tonight against CAR, I would put them at the top of the streamers, about even with the Dolphins. And on a side note, a lot of sites are ranking SD as a top stream this week, but I don’t like them. Their Def is just awful, don’t fall for this oversight. 

In summary, here are my predictions…

Miami, 14 points.

Redskins, 12 points.

Steelers, 12 points.

Packers, 12 points or 14 points.

Happy Streamin’….