Streaming Defenses: Week 14

Hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend spent with family and friends. I know we're all still recovering a bit in the FFLibrarian household from a non-stop weekend. Bob is back with a post on defenses to pick up for Week 14. Enjoy!

Well the regular season is nearly done, and some of you may have to make do with the players you have now. But a lot of leagues allow waivers during the playoffs, and turn off trades. So in the spirit, here are some plays for this week.

What a Week 13 we had. The stream worked very well, particularly if you picked up the Rams at the last second. Sheesh, 31 points? Nope, I didn’t see that many but it was Oak. And did anybody see the Jaguars?  Nope, only owned by 0.5% of teams.  Here’s the wrap up.

Week 13				Top Performers
Team	Projected	Actual		Rams*	31
Dolphins	14	TBD		Jaguars	26
Giants	12	12		Seahawks	19
Rams	12	31		Bills	19
Average	12.67	21.5		Broncos	19
AVG all teams		10.7
% Highly 0wned		11.8
Rec % owned		13.8
Bad % Owned		4

The average of all DEFs for the entire year is now 9.75. Week 13 average for all teams was 10.7, so a big week for defenses. The highly owned averaged only slightly better at 11.8, largely because of poor performances by the Chiefs, Patriots, and Packers, the same teams that were marked as sits for the week. The highly owned and recommended averaged 13.8 points, but the streamers outdid that average with 21.5, so far!!! So again, if I tell ya to sit one of the highly owned teams, take my advice and look to the streamers. This week there are a lot of matchups between highly owned and targeted teams, so fewer opportunities.  Let’s have a look. 

Player	Pts	Avg	% Owned	Opp	Comment
Seahawks	125	10.4	95%	@PHI	4th best start, could really disrupt PHI
Cardinals	148	12.3	90%	KC	Start, but temper expectations, KC doesn't give up DEF pts easily
Eagles	181	15.1	87%	SEA	Start, temper expectations, but may be some upside
Texans	143	11.9	87%	@JAC	1st best start, geez this could get ugly, lots of points
49ers	133	11.1	87%	@OAK	3rd best start, another ugly matchup, lots of points
Bills	168	14	86%	@DEN	Bad matchup, don't start the Bills
Dolphins	138	12.5	82%	BAL	Start, temper expectations, but I would start the Dolphins at home
Lions	139	11.6	81%	TB	2nd best start, another lopsided matchup, lots of points
Patriots	132	11	80%	@SD	Start, but temper expectations, SD can put some points up
Colts	127	10.6	69%	@CLE	Bad matchup, CLE is stingy giving up DEF pts
Rams	127	10.6	69%	@WAS	5th best start, Rams are hot now
Vikings	130	10.8	25%	NYJ	1st best stream, after what they did to CAR, should be a cakewalk against NYJ
Giants	87	7.2	40%	@TEN	2nd best stream, TEN is without a QB now, and the Giants should see red
Cowboys	99	8.2	20%	@CHI	3rd best stream, the Boys wake up this week against a generous CHI
Chiefs	108	9	62%	@ARI	4th best stream, KC is good enough to dismantle the ARI off

There are going to be some really big points put up by the Texans, Lions and Rams this week, due to matchups with generous teams like JAC, WAS and TB. But they can’t be considered streams since they are highly owned. I don’t like the Bills and Colts matchups. Bills playing in DEN, no thanks. Colts playing in CLE, too many things can go wrong here, and if they start Manziel, they could be chasing him all day long. Leave both on the bench. Instead, go with one of the following:

The Vikings just mashed CAR, and this week they get the hapless Jets at home. That’s a great matchup, and may have some upside. Let’s look for 14 points with upside.

The Giants put up respectable points against the Jags, and should be pretty pissed. With their starting QB out for a week, the Giants should feast on the Titans for 12 points.

The Cowboys looked awful last week, but they always seem to rebound. Chicago gives up the most DEF points in the league, look for the Boys to take advantage and post 12 points or more.

The Chiefs had a tough day against DEN and only scored 4 defensive points. But that’s why you don’t start Defs against offensive juggernauts. ARI is no longer an offensive juggernaut, in fact, they are fading fast and I don’t see them getting any better with their bell cow Ellington hurt. The Chiefs take advantage for 12 points.