This week has been bananas. More on that soon but I've got a defensive streaming article here from Bob so let's get after it:
Time to look back over the last three weeks and assess how
the streaming strategy is working. Remember, this is an alternative to taking a
defense early in the drafts and sticking with it, so we need to compare the
results of the streamers against the highest drafted Defenses. The highest drafted
Defenses, sorted by average points per week, according to MFL are listed below.
|
Team
|
Draft Pos
|
Rank
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
|
Avg
|
|
DEN
|
11.06
|
1
|
20
|
25
|
16
|
20.3
|
|
ARI
|
11.1
|
2
|
6
|
22
|
33
|
20.3
|
|
SEA
|
7.02
|
3
|
21
|
5
|
20
|
15.3
|
|
NYJ
|
11.09
|
4
|
18
|
16
|
9
|
14.3
|
|
BUF
|
8.06
|
6
|
13
|
6
|
18
|
12.3
|
|
StL
|
9.09
|
7
|
16
|
7
|
13
|
12
|
|
PHI
|
10.11
|
8
|
6
|
10
|
19
|
11.7
|
|
HOU
|
8.07
|
28
|
4
|
8
|
7
|
6.3
|
|
MIA
|
11.02
|
27
|
16
|
3
|
0
|
6.3
|
|
Streamers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
|
||||
|
CAR
|
23
|
BAL
|
3
|
DEN
|
16
|
|
|
TB
|
6
|
NO
|
9
|
NYJ
|
9
|
|
|
TEN
|
20
|
DET
|
5
|
CLE
|
2
|
|
|
GB
|
6
|
KC
|
14
|
CAR
|
8
|
|
|
AVG
|
13.75
|
AVG
|
7.75
|
AVG
|
8.75
|
|
If we look at the top 4 streams for each week, we have a
great case for Week 1. CAR and TEN beat all but one of the highly drafted, SEA.
Week 2 was a mixed bag of streamers with only KC beating out all but five of
the highly drafted. Week 3 was a good week for the highly drafted, but DEN beat
out all but five of the highly drafted, and NYJ beat out all but six. Notice
that the average of the top four streams each week still beats out all but 7 of
the highly drafted Defs. HOU, drafted in the 8th round has been a
bust, and the Dolphins haven’t been much better and killed you in Week 3. So to
this point, streamers would be ranked 8th overall. This basically
translates into saving picks from the 7th to the 11th
round for RB3s, WR3s, QB1s, and TE1s.
Below are the results of Week 3 using MFL stats and Fantasy
Sharks scoring. Suggested streams are outlined in Blue. Owned and started are in Green for start, Yellow for temper
expectations and Red for
look elsewhere.
|
Rank
|
PLAYER
|
Week 3
|
|
1
|
Cardinals
|
33
|
|
2
|
Seahawks
|
20
|
|
3
|
Eagles
|
19
|
|
4
|
Bills
|
18
|
|
5
|
Vikings
|
18
|
|
6
|
Broncos
|
16
|
|
7
|
Colts
|
13
|
|
8
|
Rams
|
13
|
|
9
|
Raiders
|
12
|
|
10
|
Ravens
|
12
|
|
14
|
Jets
|
9
|
|
15
|
Patriots
|
9
|
|
17
|
Panthers
|
8
|
|
21
|
Texans
|
7
|
|
24
|
Bengals
|
5
|
|
28
|
Browns
|
2
|
|
32
|
Dolphins
|
0
|
Had some great results of the highly owned and started. Our
two top streams (DEN and NYJ) came in above all but three of the highly owned. I
warned you about the Dolphins, but the Rams and Ravens did better than
expected. Some surprises to consider are the Vikings and Raiders. The Vikes are
starting to look like a solid Def but they see DEN this week. And the Raiders,
who looked great in pre-season, may be solidifying in the regular season. Oh,
and I didn’t agree with the pros on CLE and CIN and it turned out to be sage
advice.
So what did we learn? As far as targets, last week I listed
the Browns and Titans, and they did not disappoint. OAK took 12 points from the
Browns and the Colts took 13 from the Titans. I also listed four teams that had
QB problems: DAL, CHI, NO, DET. The opposing Defenses, ATL, SEA, CAR, and DEN, got
6, 20, 8, and 16 respectively. A new target has emerged as the 49ers, wow have
they sunk to a new low. And MIA is now on the watch list as well.
So with that analysis how does this week stack up? Here are some links to sage streaming advice. As usual, my
analysis, may or may not align with the pros:
- The Fake Football's Dreaming of Streaming: Week 4
- NFL.com's Week 4 Waiver Wire: Streaming Defenses to Target
- Rotoballer's Week 4 Defense Streamers and Starts
Here are the ownership and projection numbers for Defenses this week
of the ‘owned’ defenses. Owned being better than 75%.
|
Highly Owned Defs
|
||||
|
Team
|
Opp
|
Yahoo Proj
|
Owned
|
Comment
|
|
SEA
|
DET
|
9.56
|
100%
|
SEA is a good start at home and will dispatch another NFC North
foe.
|
|
BUF
|
NYG
|
9.36
|
96%
|
This might be a trap, but I like Buf at home, start 'em
|
|
HOU
|
@ATL
|
7.83
|
95%
|
Don't start HOU, they have been miserable against QBs and Matty
Ice is a top five QB right now.
|
|
ARI
|
StL
|
9.06
|
94%
|
ARI Def is rolling, roll with them.
|
|
NE
|
Bye
|
0
|
93%
|
Bye week, need a replacement
|
|
StL
|
@ARI
|
7.57
|
89%
|
Nope, ARI is an offensive juggernaut, and their running game is
even making waves.
|
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
9.51
|
83%
|
Yeah, start 'em again, even against a conservative offense
|
|
CAR
|
@TB
|
10.29
|
79%
|
Another good start, CAR is killing it against rookie QBs.
|
|
PHI
|
@WAS
|
9.89
|
77%
|
I would temper expectations on the road and I still don't
believe in the Eagles even after last week.
|
So I like five of the highly owned this week, but here are some
juicy streams that could outperform.
|
Top Streams Week 4
|
||||
|
GB
|
@SF
|
8.04
|
65%
|
The 49ers are a top target now, and GB is rolling on both sides
of the ball, number 1 Stream.
|
|
NYJ
|
@MIA
|
7.92
|
71%
|
This is played in London, so it's really not in MIA, but the
Jets keep coming and MIA is in turmoil, number 2 Stream.
|
|
IND
|
JAC
|
9.75
|
31%
|
JAC is still a target and I think the Colts have a good game at
home, number 3 Stream.
|
|
BAL
|
@PIT
|
6.75
|
65%
|
Michael Vick at QB? Yeah, gimme some of that. Ravens are pissed
and will take it out on a wounded PIT, number 4 Stream with upside.
|
|
OAK
|
@CHI
|
5.53
|
1%
|
I'm beginning to like the OAK defense, and this is a wild
stream, but against Clausen, I like the matchup, number 5 Stream with upside
if Cutler is still out.
|
I love the upside to BAL and OAK this week. But it would
take a brave heart to start OAK. I really wanted to put WAS in here somewhere,
but I don’t trust PHI, could they really be on the rebound? GB could be the week’s biggest Defense this week.
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