Another guest post today, this time Mike is bringing his Week 2 DFS advice our way!
I hope everyone had a profitable first week of DFS. If you
read last
week’s play/fade column and took a few of my recommendations,
hopefully it worked out well!
I know that nobody likes to hear about anyone else’s fantasy
teams, but, as promised, I’ll briefly recap my week, and look at one Fanduel cash
lineup and my Draftkings Millionaire Maker entry.
Here was my primary cash lineup, this one from the
Fanduel BIG Double-Up (I highly
recommend playing the large field double-ups weekly). This lineup, including a
couple that were slightly different, was successful in 10 of 13 entries. One of
my losses unfortunately was to fellow FF Librarian writer Jen Ryan!
This one had some hits and misses, but ultimately was enough
to beat half the field and cash. The goal on Fanduel cash games is generally to
get to 120 points.
Hits: Lacy and Julio
were must-plays this week as I mentioned in my column, and both were a success
(and highly owned). The Jets defense was a no-brainer as well.
Misses: I was very
high on Lamar Miller this week, but he didn’t pan out as hoped. Despite my
write up on Tyler Eifert, I went with Greg Olsen here as the safer play, and he
was a massive bust. The fact that he was 51% owned meant it didn’t hurt me too
badly though.
Here is my entry to the Draftkings Millionare Maker
tournament:
Even though this lineup didn’t work out as hoped, it was
good enough for a minimum cash, so I’m not too disappointed.
This tournament payout is so top heavy that everything has
to come together just right to have a chance to win. I liked Tony Romo this
week, and he played well (and in fact was on the roster that won $2 million!),
but my hopes for all the catches and touchdowns to go to Terrence Williams and
Dez Bryant were dashed, as Jason Witten scored 2 TD’s.
I faded Lacy only due to the fact that he would likely be
the most highly-owned RB, and pivoted to DeMarco Murray instead. Mark Ingram
was underpriced and a great value (especially with C.J. Spiller out), and I
figured correctly that he would have a low ownership percentage. I wasn’t
thrilled about playing Corey (Philly) Brown or Richard Rodgers, but both were
minimum-priced and in starting roles, and I was trying to find a way to squeeze
both Julio and Dez into my lineup.
QB Plays
Sam Bradford vs
Cowboys ($7,500 FD, $6,900 DK)
Bradford was a popular play last week, and should be again this
week, as his pricing is outside of the top 10 QB’s, but he has top-3 upside. He
threw 52 passes last week, and although I’m a little worried about the Cowboys
trying to play keep-away and taking the air out of the ball, Bradford should
have a similar amount of attempts this week in a game with the highest
over/under of the week.
Matt Ryan vs Giants
($8,700 FD, $7,400 DK)
The Falcons are a small underdog in the game with the second
highest over/under for the week. He should have a healthy number of attempts
once again, and of course he has the luxury of throwing to Julio Jones.
QB Fades
Drew Brees vs
Buccaneers ($8,900 FD, $7.800 DK)
This one could come back to bite me, as Brees may be the
most popular play of the week, especially for anyone who watched the Bucs get
destroyed by Marcus Mariota and the Titans last week. My biggest issues are
game script and price.The matchup is good, and Brees always plays better at
home, but I see the Saints establishing Mark Ingram and their running game this
week. Brees doesn’t have the weapons at WR and TE that he once did, and at his
price point, I’d rather play Andrew Luck for a bit more, or Matt Ryan for a bit
less.
Cam Newton vs Texans
($7,700 FD, $7,200 DK)
I don’t know how much of a “fade” this is, as I don’t think
many will be looking to Newton this week. The Texans were lit up by Alex Smith
last week, but I believe that was an anomaly, and the Panthers passing game is
anemic at best. Newton always has
potential to wreak havoc in the running game, but the Texans will keep him
under wraps.
RB Plays
Carlos Hyde vs
Steelers ($7,000 FD, $5,100 DK)
Hyde made some DFS players some serious money last week with
his monster game versus the Vikings. He looked really good, and it appears that
he is the centerpiece of the Niners’ offense. I could see a scenario where the
49ers fall behind and have to throw more this week against the dynamic offense
of the Steelers, but at this price point I think Hyde is a very safe play with
obviously huge upside. Reggie Bush was injured last week, and if he is out this
week, it makes the Hyde play even more attractive.
Lamar Miller vs
Jaguars ($7,300 FD, $5,500 DK)
I suggested Miller last week, and he was a bit of a
disappointment. I’m rolling with him again this week against the Jaguars. The
Dolphins always seem to forget about their running game, but they made an
effort to get Miller the ball more in the second half last week, with decent
results. I expect them to make a concerted effort to get Miller going this
week, and they should be playing with a lead.
RB Fades
Eddie Lacy vs.
Seahawks ($8,100 FD, $7,200 DK)
Last week’s must-play won’t be on my radar this week. Lacy
is never a terrible option, but going against the defense of Seattle, I’ll take
Matt Forte or DeMarco Murray at that price point, or save some salary by using
Hyde, Miller, or Ingram.
Joseph Randle vs.
Eagles ($6,700 FD, $5,600 DK)
I don’t hate this play as a contrarian tournament option,
because I think the Cowboys will try to take the air out of the ball with their
running game, but I think a stout Eagles run defense and the game script will
cause them to have to abandon it. Add to that the fact that Randle is part of a
three-headed RB committee and and I just don’t think he’s a good play this
week. I’d rather have Tevin Coleman, Doug Martin, or Ameer Abdullah at this
price point.
WR Plays
Eric Decker vs Colts
($6,000 FD, $5,100 DK)
I see the Jets having to play from behind and throw the ball
in this game. Lockdown corner Vontae Davis will be on Brandon Marshall, so Ryan
Fitzpatrick will look to Decker more often than normal. Decker only had two
catches last week (one for a TD), but I could see him grabbing 5-6 this week,
and hopefully another TD.
Jordan Matthews vs
Cowboys ($7,000 FD, $7,100 DK)
Matthews caught 10 balls last week, and the other receivers
for Philly looked awful. While the Eagles would prefer to spread the ball
around, right now Matthews appears to be the WR who will be eating up all the
targets. His price should eventually escalate to a higher level, so I’m using
him at this price while I can, especially on FD.
WR Fades
Keenan Allen vs Bengals ($8,200 FD, $7,100 DK)
Allen was a monster last week, but I’m not chasing last
week’s points here. While I could see Allen being productive again, the
Chargers generally spread the ball out a bit more, and last week might end up
being Allen’s top game all season. Price-wise he’s crept up to Calvin
Johnson/A.J. Green/DeAndre Hopkins territory, and I’m not ready to pay for him
at that point quite yet.
Andre Johnson vs Jets
($6,800 FD, $5,800 DK)
A popular pre-season pick in re-draft and MFL10 leagues, Johnson looked awful last week. If
you’re tempted to play him if TY Hilton is out this week, go down to Donte
Moncrief at a lower salary, and I’d even consider Phillip Dorsett for
tournaments. There are a multitude of more attractive options at his price
point. Johnson appears to be a possession receiver at best at this point in his
career.
TE Play
Jordan Reed vs Rams
($5,000, $3,700 DK)
To Gronk or not to Gronk? That is the question this week. I
almost always start all my lineups with Rob Gronkowski penciled in at TE, but
with several great, far less expensive options this week, it’s a bit of a
dilemma. I’m recommending Reed this week if you aren’t going with Gronk. Reed
had 11 targets last week, and I’d expect a similar amount this week. I’m
picking Reed over Eifert this week primarily because he’s less expensive and
Eifert will likely be heavily owned.
TE Fade
Greg Olsen vs Texans
($6,000 FD, $4,900 DK)
To be clear, I’m not basing this fade entirely on Olsen’s
poor outing last week. I still think he’ll have some great weeks this season,
perhaps even this week. It’s just that there are so many excellent options at
TE this week, I can’t see much value to paying the price for Olsen, even though
it went down this week.
Good luck this week. Find me on Twitter @mikemonlux, or
leave a comment in the comments section if you have any feedback as far as what
information you’d like to see from this column going forward.
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